In September, before most stores had cleared out their Halloween candy, shoppers were already buying for winter. Orders for space heaters rose 118%, radiators 120% and firewood 129%, while snow blowers climbed 96%, according to Shopify’s monthly sales data reported by Retail Brew. The holidays arrived early, too, with advent calendars up 143% and Christmas tree skirts up 97%. On their own, those numbers read like seasonal trivia. Next to what households are facing this winter, they look a lot more like preparation.
The Bills Are Already Visible
The heating numbers line up with a forecast that has been hard to miss. Homes that heat with oil could pay about 50% more this winter, an average increase of $878 that would push the season’s bill past $2,600, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association projects, Axios reported. The Energy Information Administration’s outlook is milder, with heating oil spending up 21%, electricity up 4% and natural gas spending down 9%, but both forecasts trace the pressure to global oil markets strained by the wars in Iran and Ukraine. A space heater won’t change the price of fuel. It can let a family heat the room it’s using instead of the whole house, a familiar way to manage a bill people can see coming.
Spending Up, Confidence Down
The broader numbers show the same split between what people buy and how they feel. Americans increased inflation-adjusted spending by 0.6% in August even as disposable income showed no growth, and consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September, with the sharpest drop among families earning $125,000 to $150,000. A PayPal survey conducted by Morning Consult in early September found 58% of Americans feel greater financial concern heading into the holidays, yet 64% still expect to spend the same or more than last year. That tension helps explain why the calendar keeps moving forward: 40% of respondents said they plan to start holiday shopping by the end of October, and 29% intend to start earlier than they did last year.
Retailers Are Meeting Them Early
Retailers have rebuilt the season around that behavior. Amazon and Target ran competing sales on October 6 and 7, and Adobe expects U.S. online spending to reach $95.8 billion in October alone, up 8% from a year earlier, before the official holiday season begins. Adobe projects a record $275.1 billion in online sales for November and December, up 6.7%, while Deloitte forecasts total holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, growth of 4% to 4.8%. Those are healthy forecasts, but they rest on households that say they are worried and are leaning on budgets, price comparisons and sales to get through the season. Credit is part of the picture as well: Adobe expects buy now, pay later to drive $21.3 billion in online holiday spending, and 55% of PayPal’s respondents said they have used or considered it.
The Home Front
Not every early purchase is defensive. Shopify merchants also saw orders for adjustable exercise benches rise 176% and resistance bands 54%, a sign some people are building home workout setups before shorter days and colder weather push them indoors. Pet hoodies climbed 142%, and the National Retail Federation still expects Halloween spending to reach a record $13.5 billion, up from $13.1 billion last year. The overall picture is of a country spending carefully and early, putting money into the home, the holidays and a few small comforts while bracing for bills it can already see.
What the Numbers Can and Can’t Show
September orders can only prove so much. Shopify’s figures cover its own merchants rather than the whole retail market, and the reported increases don’t specify whether they compare with last September or with August. What the data does show is where attention is going. The next tests arrive quickly: October sales will show whether the early start pulled holiday spending forward or added to it, and the first heating bills will show whether the households buying space heaters in September were overreacting or right on time.
Sources: Shopify sales data via Retail Brew; National Energy Assistance Directors Association and Energy Information Administration via Axios; PayPal and Morning Consult holiday survey (2,005 U.S. adults, Sept. 2–4, 2026); Adobe Digital Insights 2026 holiday forecast; Deloitte 2026 holiday retail forecast; National Retail Federation; Conference Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis via SSC reporting.