Donald Trump entered his second term having accomplished something Republicans had spent years trying to do: significantly weaken Democrats’ hold on Latino voters.
Two years later, that coalition looks considerably less secure.
A new Pew Research Center survey finds that just 24% of Latino registered voters approve of Trump’s job performance, down from 38% at the beginning of his second term. The decline is even steeper among Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024. Their approval of his performance has fallen from 93% to 57%.
That does not mean Trump’s 2024 Latino supporters have suddenly become Democrats. Most have not.
But the numbers suggest something more consequential for the midterms. Some of the voters behind one of the most important shifts of the 2024 election now appear less satisfied with the president and more pessimistic about the economy. They are also less firmly attached to Republican candidates than they were when Trump returned to the White House.
The question now is whether dissatisfaction becomes turnout.
Democrats Have Reopened a Large Advantage
If the election for Congress were held today, 51% of Hispanic registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their House district, compared with 24% who would support the Republican.
Another 18% are unsure, while 7% would choose another candidate.
Pew did not simply ask voters which party they preferred generically. In most states, respondents were shown the actual Democratic and Republican candidates running in their congressional districts. That gives the survey a closer connection to the choices voters will see on their ballots.
The 27-point Democratic advantage is notable because of how dramatically the Latino electorate had moved in the opposite direction.
Social Storytellers Collective has been tracking that movement throughout the midterm cycle. Earlier this month, an NBC News/Telemundo poll showed Democrats with a 24-point advantage among Latino registered voters, with especially large differences by gender and generation. The new Pew findings point in the same direction while adding another layer. Dissatisfaction with Trump now shows up not only in party preference but also in motivation and in how voters rate his performance.
Latino voters have historically favored Democrats in midterm elections, but that advantage had been shrinking. Democrats won Latino voters by 47 percentage points in the 2018 midterms, according to Pew, before that margin fell to 21 points in 2022. Trump continued making gains in presidential contests and won nearly half of the Latino vote in 2024.
The new numbers therefore do not simply show Democrats maintaining a traditional constituency.
They suggest that at least some of the movement toward Republicans may be proving more conditional than permanent.
Trump’s 2024 Latino Voters Are Not All Staying Put
The most revealing numbers may be among the Latinos who actually voted for Trump two years ago.
About 65% say they would currently vote for the Republican House candidate in their district. Another 11% say they would support the Democrat.
But nearly a quarter are somewhere else: 14% would choose another candidate and 10% are unsure.
That is an important group in a midterm election.
A voter does not have to switch parties to change an election. A Republican who becomes less enthusiastic, skips the congressional race or stays home entirely can matter just as much in a competitive district as one who casts a ballot for a Democrat.
That is consistent with our earlier reporting on Latino men, one of the groups most closely associated with Trump’s 2024 gains. The evidence then already suggested the shift was less settled than political shorthand implied. Turnout, affordability, immigration and dissatisfaction with Democrats were all at work alongside party identification.
Pew’s earlier research has found that changes in Latino voting patterns have sometimes reflected differences in who turns out, rather than large numbers of voters changing parties outright.
That makes another finding particularly relevant.
Latino voters supporting Democratic congressional candidates appear substantially more engaged.
Among them, 77% say it really matters which party controls Congress, up from 58% at a similar point in 2022. Fifty-three percent say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with 41% four years ago. And 45% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, nearly double the 24% measured in 2022.
Republican-supporting Latino voters, by comparison, show lower levels of engagement than Democratic supporters.
In a midterm, that enthusiasm gap can become as important as the preference gap.
The Economy Is Complicating the Republican Argument
Trump’s improvement among Latino voters in recent elections was never driven by one issue alone. Immigration, cultural concerns, dissatisfaction with Democrats and economic frustration all played roles in the broader political movement.
But Pew’s new survey shows the economy remains Latino voters’ top issue, and their assessment of it has worsened.
Among Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024, only 34% now describe economic conditions as excellent or good, down from 57% at the beginning of the year.
The deterioration also fits a broader economic pattern we have been documenting. Americans are still spending, but confidence has weakened as household purchasing power fails to keep pace. Some Latino voters moved toward Trump partly on economic grounds. For them, the political test is whether the promised improvement feels visible in their own budgets.
That creates a political problem for Republicans.
Presidents often benefit when voters associate them with economic improvement, and they absorb the consequences when voters believe conditions have deteriorated. Whether Trump keeps the newer members of his coalition may depend less on whether they still identify with him personally. It may depend more on whether they believe their own finances are improving.
So far, the Pew numbers point in the other direction.
Immigration Is Not Producing a Uniform Response Either
Immigration enforcement remains one of the defining policies of Trump’s second administration, but even his Latino supporters do not speak with one voice about its intensity.
Among Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024, 30% say the administration is doing too much to deport immigrants living in the country illegally. A majority, however, says the administration is either striking the right balance or not doing enough.
The administration has also been expanding immigration enforcement into areas that historically sat outside the obvious boundaries of immigration policy. As Social Storytellers Collective reported this month, a draft federal tax form would require filers to answer a citizenship or work-authorization question. Policies like that help explain why Latino voters may see immigration not just as a border issue but as something increasingly present in everyday civic and economic life.
That complexity matters.
Political coverage often treats the Latino electorate as though immigration decides its vote. The Pew results show voters weighing the economy, immigration enforcement, Trump himself and the broader effect of administration policy on Latino communities, all at once.
On that last measure, the administration fares poorly.
Seven in 10 Hispanic registered voters say Trump administration policies have harmed Hispanics, compared with 12% who say they have helped. And 61% say the situation of Hispanics in the United States is worse than it was a year ago.
Those views remain highly partisan. Republican candidate supporters are much more divided, while 91% of Democratic candidate supporters say Trump’s policies have harmed Hispanics.
For Many Latino Voters, the Midterms Are Becoming a Referendum on Trump
Perhaps the clearest sign of the political environment is how Latino voters describe the meaning of their congressional vote.
Fifty-five percent say they view their vote this fall as a vote against Trump. Just 14% describe it as a vote in support of him, while 30% say Trump is not much of a factor.
Four years ago, Latino voters were far less likely to see the midterms through the lens of the president. In 2022, 23% viewed their vote as opposition to Joe Biden, while 48% said Biden was not a factor.
Among Latino Democratic supporters this year, the dynamic is overwhelming: 84% say their congressional vote is a vote against Trump.
Even among Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, the picture is not entirely comfortable for the president. Thirty-five percent say their congressional vote is a vote for him, but 19% now describe it as a vote against him.
That is not a wholesale political conversion.
It is evidence of a coalition under pressure.
The Latino Vote May Be About Mobilization More Than Realignment
For years, both parties have treated Latino voters as evidence for competing stories about American politics.
Democrats have worried that a constituency once considered reliably Democratic was slipping away. Republicans have argued that Trump accelerated a lasting political realignment among working-class and culturally conservative Latino voters.
The 2026 numbers complicate both narratives.
Even the category itself deserves care. As we reported during Hispanic Heritage Month, “Hispanic” covers more than 70 million Americans, and their national origins, generations, racial identities and relationships to the label vary widely. That makes any claim that “the Latino vote” has permanently moved in one direction particularly suspect. The national numbers are real. The electorate underneath them is far less uniform, and, as we reported this week, it is getting younger and more naturalized.
Democrats have clearly regained ground, but nearly one in five Latino registered voters remains unsure whom they would support for Congress. Trump still retains the approval of a majority of the Latino voters who backed him in 2024. And nearly two-thirds of those voters still say they would choose the Republican congressional candidate today.
What has changed is the level of certainty around that support.
Latino Democratic voters are unusually motivated. Trump’s approval has fallen. Economic assessments have deteriorated. And some of the Latino voters who helped deliver his 2024 gains are no longer firmly aligned with the Republican candidates beneath him on the ballot.
Pew surveyed 774 Hispanic registered voters between September 28 and October 4, just weeks before Election Day.
The survey does not tell us how those voters will ultimately behave.
But it does make one thing clear: the Latino electorate that helped reshape the 2024 presidential race is still moving, and in 2026 the movement is no longer all in Trump’s direction.