Gasoline, eggs and groceries have become everyday measures of economic confidence. With Election Day next week, their political power comes from how often Americans see those prices, not from how completely those prices explain the economy.
I don’t need an economist to tell me when gas has gotten expensive. I can see it on the pump before I put the nozzle back. I know what I paid the last time I filled up, and I notice when the same tank suddenly costs another $10 or $15. Most people have the same relationship with groceries. They know what a dozen eggs used to cost, what their regular shopping trip usually runs and how much is left after the necessities are paid. These are ordinary transactions, but they shape how people understand the economy. Officials can point to employment figures, economic growth or a rising stock market, and those numbers may be perfectly legitimate. But when someone is spending more to get to work and feed their family, that’s the economy they recognize. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, and people aren’t waiting for it to have their say. By Oct. 25, more than 26 million Americans had already voted, and several states were running ahead of their 2022 midterm pace. People are paying attention, and they’re bringing their receipts with them.
The numbers explain why gasoline is getting so much attention right now. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline was about $4.25 a gallon on October 28, compared with roughly $3.04 a year earlier. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that gasoline prices rose 34.2% over the 12 months ending in September. That’s a real hit, especially for people who commute long distances, work multiple jobs or live where driving is the only practical way to get around. Earlier this month, I wrote about how a lot of September’s extra spending went straight into the gas tank. Retail sales rose 0.8%, but take out gas stations and they rose just 0.2%. Our reporter Bryson Davis drives 44 miles for work and fills up twice a week at about $65 a tank, a pace that approaches $6,800 a year. On paper, that looks like consumers spending more. In his driveway, it looks like every weekend errand getting planned around the gas gauge. Gasoline also has a visibility most household expenses don’t. The price is posted on enormous signs along the road, and you see it whether you stop or not. Eggs work differently but carry similar psychological weight. They’re a familiar staple, and their price can become shorthand for whether shopping feels affordable. That doesn’t mean egg prices are always rising. Individual food categories rise and fall, sometimes sharply. It means people remember when something they used to buy without thinking suddenly required a second look.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in late September and early October found that 73% of Americans were very concerned about food and consumer goods prices, and that concern about gasoline and energy had grown across the political spectrum. A separate Pew analysis found that 84% of registered voters called the economy very important to their vote, including large majorities of both Democratic and Republican supporters. That matters. The cost of living isn’t a Democratic or Republican experience, and economic frustration doesn’t automatically become support for a different candidate. Party loyalty, cultural issues, views about government and impressions of the alternatives still count. Reuters reported this week that some voters in competitive congressional districts were struggling with everyday costs but planned to back the same candidates anyway. Others described affordability as a reason to reconsider. Economic pressure can reinforce a political belief just as easily as it can challenge one. What recurring expenses do is give people a concrete way to judge whether promises about prosperity match their own lives.
It’s also a mistake to treat every price increase as proof that a particular elected official caused it. Gasoline prices respond to global oil markets, refining capacity, supply disruptions, taxes and geopolitical events. Egg prices move with disease outbreaks, production costs and supply constraints. The White House doesn’t set either price. Fuel costs also don’t stay at the pump. As we reported, the price of diesel travels through the economy, following nearly every shipment of food, clothing and household goods on its way to store shelves. At the same time, public policy does influence energy markets, trade costs, transportation and the financial pressure households feel, and voters are entitled to examine those decisions and their consequences.
What troubles me about our political conversations on the economy is how quickly lived experience gets dismissed when it doesn’t match a preferred statistic. Someone struggling to afford groceries doesn’t need to hear that the economy is technically doing well. They need an explanation of why growth hasn’t given them more financial breathing room. Leaders who lean on favorable national indicators without addressing household costs leave that gap open. And when people can’t reconcile the story they’re being told with the receipts in their hands, they stop believing the story.
I think we underestimate how much political judgment forms in these small, repeated moments. Filling the tank, buying eggs, paying the electric bill and checking the bank account afterward add up to a running assessment of financial security. Those experiences aren’t a complete economic analysis, and they shouldn’t replace an understanding of policy. But they explain why affordability stays politically powerful even when some indicators improve. People are constantly comparing what things cost with what they earn, what they remember paying and what they believe life should reasonably require. Elections give that built-up frustration, satisfaction or uncertainty a place to register, and this year that place is just days away. Millions of Americans have already made their way to the polls, and millions more will by Tuesday. The danger for policymakers is assuming a good economic report will settle an argument people are still having with their own household budgets. As long as everyday necessities keep straining household budgets, economic credibility will be measured less by the numbers officials announce than by what families have left after paying their bills.