Climate Change Is Moving the Vacation Calendar. Mostly for Travelers Who Can Afford to Move It.

September and October used to sit outside the center of the transatlantic travel calendar. Air Canada now expects both months to produce the strongest September and October revenue in the company’s history, as more premium travelers move trips to Europe and Japan away from the hottest and most crowded weeks of summer. The shift began two or three years ago and has accelerated enough that the airline is changing routes, aircraft deployment and even maintenance schedules around it.

Air Canada Chief Commercial Officer Mark Galardo said the airline has not seen the same behavior among budget passengers. The movement into fall is overwhelmingly a premium phenomenon. Business-class travelers heading to Italy, Spain, France, the Mediterranean and Japan are increasingly choosing spring and autumn instead of July and August.

Europe has endured extreme heat, drought and wildfires this summer, while parts of Japan have exceeded 40 degrees Celsius. Travelers who can choose another month increasingly are. Delta and United have also reported stronger autumn demand for Europe.

Choosing another month requires substantial control over when to travel. Retirees, executives, remote professionals and affluent leisure travelers may have that flexibility. Families with school-age children often do not. Neither do many hourly employees whose vacation schedules depend on employers, workers in industries with fixed seasonal calendars or travelers whose budgets require them to chase whichever dates produce affordable fares.

Air Canada is already rebuilding parts of its operation around the travelers who can move. It has added service to leisure destinations including Sicily and Mallorca and expects spring and fall demand to contribute significantly to new routes as additional aircraft enter the fleet. The airline is even considering performing more aircraft maintenance during summer so planes are available for the growing September market.

Climate change affects everyone in a hot destination, but people with money and control over their calendars can increasingly purchase distance from its most uncomfortable effects. Other travelers remain concentrated in the periods dictated by schools, jobs and price.