New Pew Research Center findings show broad confidence in election administration ahead of the November midterms. But Democrats and Republicans are increasingly worried about different threats, and trust in mail voting is declining.
By Social Storytellers Collective News Desk
October 20, 2026 · 5 min read
A voter preparing for the November midterms may have every intention of casting a ballot but still wonder whether the process will work as expected. Someone planning to vote by mail might worry about whether the ballot will arrive, be processed and ultimately count. Another voter might be more concerned about someone who is not legally eligible casting a ballot. Both may describe their concerns as protecting election integrity, even though they are focused on very different potential problems.
That divide is becoming increasingly important with Election Day approaching. A new Pew Research Center survey, released Tuesday, October 20, finds that Americans remain broadly confident in the administration of elections. Yet beneath that agreement, Democrats and Republicans differ substantially over what threatens the system and which voting methods deserve their confidence. The results suggest that Americans have not abandoned trust in elections, but they are becoming less united in how they evaluate whether an election is secure.
Americans Trust the System, but Not the Same Parts of It
Pew surveyed 5,062 adults, including 3,917 registered voters, between September 28 and October 4. The findings challenge the assumption that widespread political distrust has translated into wholesale rejection of election administration. An overwhelming 87% of registered voters expect elections in their communities to be run well, including 90% of Republican candidate supporters and 91% of Democratic candidate supporters.
The agreement begins to fracture when voters consider specific threats. Among people supporting Democratic candidates for Congress, 90% are confident that noncitizens attempting to vote will be prevented from doing so. Among Republican candidate supporters, that confidence falls to 45%. The pattern reverses when the question shifts to whether legally qualified citizens will be able to cast ballots. Ninety percent of Republican supporters express confidence in that outcome, compared with 72% of Democratic supporters.
These findings reveal two competing understandings of election security. Republican voters are considerably more concerned about the possibility of ineligible people participating, while Democratic voters are more skeptical that everyone entitled to vote will be able to do so. Both concerns involve the integrity of an election, but each places emphasis on a different responsibility of the system: preventing unlawful votes and protecting lawful participation.
Democrats Are Losing Confidence in Mail Voting
One of the survey’s most consequential findings concerns mail and absentee ballots, a voting method that has become closely associated with partisan disagreements since the 2020 presidential election. Only 53% of registered voters now express confidence that ballots cast by mail will be counted as intended. By comparison, 79% are confident that votes cast in person will be counted accurately.
The shift among Democratic voters is especially notable. In 2022, 88% of Democratic candidate supporters expressed confidence in the accurate counting of mail ballots. That figure has fallen to 64% in 2026, a decline of 24 percentage points. Republican confidence remains substantially lower at 42%, although that represents a modest improvement from previous election cycles.
Voting intentions are changing alongside these attitudes. According to Pew, 15% of Democratic supporters plan to return, or have already returned, absentee ballots through the U.S. Postal Service, compared with 22% in 2022. The broader use of absentee voting remains higher among Democrats than Republicans, but the declining willingness to return ballots through traditional mail suggests a shift in how voters approach participation.
These figures do not establish that mail voting has become less secure or that counting practices have deteriorated. They measure confidence and stated intentions, rather than actual ballot-processing failures. They also do not establish that concerns about ballot counting are directly responsible for changes in voting behavior. What they demonstrate is that a voting method previously viewed favorably by many Democratic voters is now facing greater skepticism from the same political constituency.
The Political Fight Is Changing How Voters See the Process
Concerns about election security have become a recurring feature of national politics, especially following Donald Trump’s challenges to the 2020 presidential election results. Trump and other Republican leaders have continued emphasizing election fraud and voter eligibility, while Democrats have increasingly focused on ballot access, administrative independence and potential government interference.
Pew’s open-ended survey responses show how differently those arguments are reaching voters. Among Republican candidate supporters, 19% independently mentioned concerns about fraudulent votes or illegitimate voters. Among Democratic supporters, 10% raised concerns about eligible voters being denied access, while 11% mentioned possible interference in election administration by the Trump administration.
Those differences have practical consequences for public expectations. A voter convinced that ineligible ballots represent the primary threat may favor stricter verification requirements. Someone primarily concerned about qualified voters being turned away may view those same requirements with suspicion, particularly if they create additional administrative burdens. Election officials are left responsible for administering procedures that must satisfy legal standards while serving communities with conflicting expectations about fairness and security.
The political environment has also intensified scrutiny of what happens after votes are counted. Separate Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos polling released this week found widespread skepticism about whether Trump would accept Republican losses in November. That concern is separate from whether election workers can accurately count ballots, but it underscores how public trust depends on the conduct of political leaders as well as the administration of elections.
Election Workers Are Operating Between Two Sets of Fears
The competing expectations place election administrators in a difficult position. Their responsibility is to ensure that eligible voters can participate, legally cast ballots are accurately counted, and safeguards prevent unlawful voting. Yet even when those responsibilities are fulfilled, public perceptions may be influenced by political statements, disputed claims and unfamiliar procedures.
Pew found that approximately two-thirds of voters believe attempts to intimidate people at polling locations will be stopped. Confidence is higher among Republican supporters, at 74%, than Democratic supporters, at 61%. The findings suggest that concerns extend beyond ballot counting to the experience of physically arriving at a polling place and exercising the right to vote.
This is also where election confidence becomes a question of access. A voter who fears intimidation may approach Election Day differently from someone who believes polling locations are secure. A voter who distrusts mail ballots may decide to vote in person, potentially changing turnout patterns and administrative demands. Those choices do not necessarily mean participation will decline, but they can influence how people interact with the election system.
Election administration therefore involves more than managing equipment, staffing polling stations and processing ballots. It increasingly requires explaining how safeguards operate and reassuring voters who may enter the process with sharply different assumptions about what could go wrong.
The Next Test Is Whether Confidence Survives the Results
With the November 3 elections approaching, the country faces a test that extends beyond which party controls Congress. Election officials must administer a process that most voters expect to work, while political campaigns continue arguing over which threats deserve the greatest attention.
There is an important measure of stability in Pew’s findings: large majorities of both parties still believe elections will be administered competently. That shared confidence offers a stronger starting point than the country’s polarized political rhetoric might suggest. But the drop in confidence surrounding mail ballots, particularly among Democratic voters, indicates that trust in specific parts of the system can weaken even while overall confidence remains relatively high.
The consequences may become clearer after Election Day, when close races, delayed results and contested ballots could place election procedures under greater scrutiny. Americans do not need to agree on every election policy to recognize the importance of accurate counting, lawful participation and transparent administration. Whether those shared expectations remain intact after the votes are counted may say as much about the country’s democratic health as the election results themselves.