Going home for the holidays is about to cost more than it has in a decade, and airlines are betting enough travelers will pay anyway. Holiday airfare is higher than at any point in the past 10 years, according to Hopper’s 2026 holiday report, with domestic round-trip fares up 31% from last year for Thanksgiving and 23% for Christmas, Travel Noire reported. Hopper’s figures put the average Thanksgiving round trip around $402 and Christmas around $452, Morning Brew reported.
Fuel is doing most of the damage. The war with Iran has sent energy prices soaring, and United Airlines cut its profit outlook for the year on Tuesday because of fuel costs. The pressure is not easing soon, either, as Ryanair’s chief executive warned that European fares could rise another 20% over the next year.
What stands out is who airlines expect to keep flying. Delta CEO Ed Bastian told analysts this month that the company has seen a “limited amount of resistance” to higher fares, a confidence tied to wealthier households that make up much of its customer base, The Wall Street Journal reported. That split, where higher earners keep spending while everyone else trims, is the same pattern SSC has tracked as vacations became a luxury good and spending stayed strong even as budgets felt shakier.
For families watching every dollar, timing is the main lever. Hopper recommends booking before Halloween, steering clear of the most expensive days, including Sunday, Nov. 29, after Thanksgiving and Dec. 18 to 20 before Christmas, and using points, miles or refundable fares in case plans change. Early-morning flights can also help, since they are less likely to get caught in the kind of delays that have been climbing this year.