The headlines are about missiles and diplomacy. The story hitting American households is about money. Since the U.S.-Israel offensive on Iran began February 28, the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows — has been effectively disrupted. Brent crude oil prices surged more than 40% since the conflict began, reaching approximately $102 per barrel, and the national average gasoline price hit $3.79 a gallon — up about 87 cents, or 30%, from a month ago. That’s not an abstraction. That’s a tank of gas.
The pain is not evenly distributed. Higher gasoline prices act like a regressive tax — lower-income households devote a higher share of their budget to energy, meaning the same price spike costs them proportionally more. Beyond gas, diesel prices have topped $5 a gallon, pushing up trucking costs that flow through to groceries, goods, and services. Economists are now raising inflation forecasts and warning of stagflation risk — a scenario where prices rise even as growth slows. The average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year because of the oil price jump. For families already stretched by high borrowing costs and a softening job market, that math is unforgiving. This war has a price tag. Working families are paying it first.