Private sector employers added 122,000 jobs in May — the strongest month for private payrolls since January 2025, according to ADP’s Wednesday report. The headline number is real. So is the context the headline obscures.
The sector breakdown supports ADP chief economist Nela Richardson’s characterization of May hiring as broad-based. Services led with 114,000 jobs added, paced by education and health at 57,000 and trade, transportation, and utilities at 36,000. Goods-producing sectors added 8,000, with construction carrying most of that gain. The information sector shed 9,000 jobs — a detail that landed quietly in a report otherwise framed as encouraging.
The firm-size breakdown is where the structural argument lives. Small businesses accounted for 67,000 of the 122,000 jobs added. Large employers added 40,000. Mid-sized firms added 17,000. Small business jobs disproportionately skew toward lower wages, fewer benefits, and greater vulnerability to economic volatility. A hiring surge concentrated at the bottom of the firm-size distribution is not the same story as broad-based labor market strength — even when the sectors look diverse.
The pay data is the number SSC is watching most closely. Job-stayers saw 4.4 percent year-over-year wage growth, consistent with prior months. Job-changers received 6.5 percent — a slight narrowing from April’s 6.6 percent. That gap matters because the job-changer premium is one of the cleaner signals of worker leverage in the labor market. When it narrows, workers have less power to leave. When it narrows in a month where the headline jobs number looks strong, it suggests the market is adding positions without adding the conditions that give workers meaningful mobility.
The economy is adding jobs. The question is which workers are being reached by that growth — and which ones are still waiting for the labor market to find them.